Simulated with and without managers: how far would teams reach?

Every dot is one team in one World Cup (1998–2022, 32-team era). X: the round Elo alone predicted, on average, across 20,000 re-bracketed replays of that specific year. Y: the round they actually reached.

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Domestic-managed

Foreign-managed

Domestic trend Foreign trend

Points are jittered slightly within each real-round row so overlapping teams stay visible; the dashed line marks perfect calibration (expected = actual). Above the line: teams that overperformed their Elo-implied odds. Below: teams that underperformed. Simulation: pre-manager Elo ratings, per-year re-bracketed Monte Carlo.